Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Preview and Odds
2010-11-15
Sportsbook.com Nuggets vs. Suns Betting Lines: pick ‘em, Total: 218.5
Denver redeemed itself at home last week giving the Lakers their first loss of the season, after a 31-point defeat in Indiana two days prior. Carmelo Anthony posted his third double-double on the season in just over 40 minutes of play against L.A., scoring 32 points and grabbing 13 boards. With three days of rest over the weekend, the Nuggets head to Phoenix, where they have lost 11 consecutive times, with their last win coming in Anthony’s rookie season.
Defense will be key against the fast-paced and high-scoring Suns, who rank second in the league in points per game (109.1) and three-point shooting (41.6%, tied with Detroit). The Nuggets should be able to keep up the pace with fresh legs. Denver is 3-2 ATS on the road this season, but its unsuccessful history in Phoenix will be difficult to end.
Meanwhile, the Suns topped .500 Sunday night after handing the Lakers their first home loss this season -– second loss in a row -– with a 121-116 win. Steve Nash posted his fourth consecutive double-double, and Jason Richardson dropped seven of the team’s 22 three-pointers for a game-high 35 points. Outside shooting will be crucial Monday night, especially with the uncertain playing status of seven-foot center Robin Lopez, who didn’t return in the second half in L.A. after a spraining his knee. Despite going 2-0 SU as the home favorite, Phoenix is 0-2 SU and ATS in back-to-back games -– a considerable factor to take into account against the well-rested Nuggets.
The Nuggets are still without big men Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin, who are both out indefinitely with knee injuries, but could this only be a minor factor with Lopez’s knee injury. In the last three seasons, three of four games have gone under the total, and this game looks likely to follow the trend due to injuries and lack of rest from consecutive games for Phoenix.
These NBA betting trends indicate that the Suns will cover the point spread tonight.
PHOENIX is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 111.4, OPPONENT 103.9 - (Rating = 1*).
Alvin Gentry is 39-18 ATS (68.4%, +19.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% as the coach of PHOENIX. The average score was PHOENIX 114.7, OPPONENT 105.1 - (Rating = 2*).
To bet on this game or to check out the NBA betting odds for all of tonight’s games, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
NBA: NBA All-star Betting: Texas Style2010-02-12For most bettors, the NBA All-Star Game and the entire weekend for that matter, offers a winter sabbatical from the grind of daily betting. Still, there is a line, total, and numerous props always available for this game, and many players will get involved “just for fun”. This piece is dedicated to that group, as it is certainly more fun to win your all-star wagers. Read on as I, StatFox Steve, go over a little background about the NBA’s All-Star Game, and reveal this week’s prediction, which utilizes the same strategy I have employed in winning the last three all-star games. Get the latest price and other betting options for the game on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page.
The best players of the NBA will be on hand for what should be the most star-studded event in the history of the league’s all-star festivities. The 2010 NBA All-star game, to be played at brand new Cowboys’ Stadium in Arlington, TX, figures to be played in front of the largest crowd ever to watch a basketball game. Unfortunately, the game took a hit when one of the biggest of the stars, Kobe Bryant, who has been alternating MVP’s of the last four showcases with Lebron James, had to back out due to injury.
Last season, the West defeated the East 146-119 with Bryant of the Lakers stealing the MVP honors back away from James. The two of them have formed their own personal head-to-head dual in recent years, and the MVP honor for ’10 figures to come down to James and whether or not his team wins the game. I’m here to analyze that prospect as well as to dig up some key handicapping information from past all-star games in order to help you if you choose to partake in this year’s proceedings. The West opened as a 4-1/2 point favorite with a total of 262, but since the injury news, the line is down to West -3, total: 260.
James is the go-to guy for the East, and the rest of the starting five was going to be identical to a year ago, until Allen Iverson backed out. He was replaced by Rajon Rondo and is joined by Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic, Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics, and Dwyane Wade of the Miami Heat. On the bench for the East are all-stars Paul Pierce of the Boston Celtics, David Lee of the Knicks, Al Horford and Joe Johnson of the Hawks, Derrick Rose of the Bulls, Gerald Wallace of Charlotte, and Chris Bosh of the Raptors. Bosh was a starter in the 2007 game.
If you read this week’s Platinum Sheet, you would have seen that Iverson had a dragging effect on the East’s PVR total. However, since he left, the East figures to be in much better position.
The West All-Stars starters include Steve Nash of the Phoenix Suns, Dirk Nowitzki of the hometown Mavericks, Amare Stoudemire of the Phoenix Suns, Tim Duncan of the San Antonio Spurs and Carmelo Anthony of the Denver Nuggets. The bench of the West will include Zach Randolph of Memphis, Chauncey Billups of the Denver Nuggets, Chris Kaman of the LA Clippers, Derron Williams of the Utah Jazz, Jason Kidd of the Mavericks, Pau Gasol of the Los Angeles Lakers and Kevin Durant of Oklahoma City.
Coaching the East will be the Orlando Magic’s Stan Van Gundy, and the coach of the West will be the Denver Nuggets’ George Karl. The West lost a lot with the injuries to the Hornets’ Chris Paul, Bryant, and the Blazers’ Brandon Roy, but still seems to boast a significant size advantage once again, with seven players boasting power forward size or greater. If anything, the speed could be the advantage of the East. Being in Dallas, the “home court advantage” will again be favoring the West for the 7th straight season. Officially, the East hosted the ’07 game in Vegas, but the regional edge was to the West.
Last year’s championship run by the Lakers and the current standings in the league have many experts believing that any ground the East had gained in recent years has been lost. While very top heavy with its four elite teams (Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, and Atlanta), the rest of East owned a winning percentage below the TOP 10 in the West as of presstime. In terms of head-to-head records in non-conference play this season, through action on Thursday, the West was 8-games above .500 against the East. Compare that to last season, when the East was +20 games at that same point, and two years ago when the West was +43.
Considering the West has been favored in every NBA All-Star Game since ’01, it’s not a surprise that they are the chalk again for this game. Here are a few other trends that have formed in recent years in the NBA mid-season extravaganza:
The straight up winner has taken all but one of the last nine games ATS.
The Eastern Conference in on an all-star game run of 4-2 ATS, all as the underdog.
OVER the total has converted in three straight games and six of the L8.
Shaquille O’Neal, the ’04 MVP, is the only one of the L9 MVP’s not in the ’10 game.
So, who wins this year’s game? Who should we bet on? Most often, it comes down to these questions: 1) Which roster is better? And 2) Which team will play with more cohesiveness? While it is impossible for anyone to know enough about #2 other than pure speculation, it IS possible to evaluate the first question. This can be done both from perception and quantitatively.
I have used a unique formula to determine which roster was more talented in each of the last three games. It led me to predict a 133-123 win for the West a year ago. I’ll do the same this year.
The formula involves taking into account the popular Hollinger Ratings on ESPN.com used for evaluating Player Efficiency (PER). I’ve estimated the minutes the starters and reserves will play based upon recent games and have come up with a theoretical TOTAL TEAM EFFICIENCY RATING which I use to justify a pointspread play for Sunday’s game. Take a look.
Expected East Starters (MIN,PER,TOTAL)
* Rajon Rondo (Boston) - (20, 19.92, 398.4)
* Dwyane Wade (Miami) - (26, 27.59, 717.34)
* Kevin Garnett (Boston) - (19, 19.77, 375.63)
* LeBron James (Cleveland) - (28, 31.27, 875.56)
* Dwight Howard (Orlando) - (26, 23.1, 600.6)
East Reserves
David Lee (New York) - (16, 19.92, 318.72)
Derrick Rose (Chicago) - (17, 17.46, 296.82)
Chris Bosh (Toronto) - (20, 26.13, 522.6)
Al Horford (Atlanta) - (16, 18.84, 301.44)
Gerald Wallace (Charlotte) - (16, 19.36, 309.76)
Joe Johnson (Atlanta) - (18, 20.14, 362.52)
Paul Pierce (Boston) - (18, 18.77, 337.86)
Roster Total: 5417.25
Expected West Starters (MIN,PER,TOTAL)
* Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas) - (24, 23.11, 554.64)
* Steve Nash (Phoenix) - (21, 23.2, 487.2)
* Amare Stoudemire (Phoenix) - (24, 20.09, 482.16)
* Tim Duncan (San Antonio) - (21, 27.33, 573.93)
* Carmelo Anthony (Denver) - (26, 24.62, 640.12)
West Reserves
Zach Randolph (Memphis) - (16, 22.13, 354.08)
Pao Gasol (LA Lakers) - (17, 22.34, 379.78)
Jason Kidd (Dallas) - (15, 16.95, 254.25)
Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City) - (24, 25.33, 607.92)
Chris Kaman (LA Clippers) - (16, 17.3, 276.8)
Derron Williams (Utah) - (19, 20.63, 391.97)
Chauncey Billups (Denver) - (17, 21.42, 364.14)
Roster Total: 5366.99
According to the results, assuming the minutes played breakdown is somewhat near accurate (it was VERY close a year ago), the revised East roster is about 0.9% better in terms of cumulative player efficiency ratings. That’s a good sign for an underdog in an all-star contest, however is nowhere close to as big as last season, when the West was +4.2%.
I’d have to say that after all of the shuffling of rosters due to injury, the East shows the edge on the pointspread. I will make a bold call for the upset and not-so-bold call that James will be the MVP, playing extensive minutes and putting on a show in front of the record crowd. I also think the changes will result in a slower paced, under game. Prediction: East 128, West 124.
NBA: Big Thursday Night NBA Matchup
2009-12-04
The San Antonio Spurs took advantage of an easy portion in their schedule to get on track after a poor start to the season. Things are about to get much tougher. The Spurs host the Boston Celtics on Thursday as both teams go for their sixth straight win. San Antonio is a shaky 1.5-point favorite, shaky in that nearly 80% of bettors like the Celtics against the spread, according to the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends page.
San Antonio (9-6, 8-7 ATS) lost six of its first 10 games to post the worst start in the Tim Duncan era. An ankle injury caused Duncan to miss two victories during that stretch, but he’s been a key factor during the current five-game winning streak, averaging 20.6 points and 9.8 rebounds. He’s led the team in scoring in three of the wins, including a 97-89 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday.
The Spurs held the 76ers to 39.3 percent shooting and gave up fewer than 90 points for the third time during the win streak. They are yielding an average of 91.8 points in the last five games - seven fewer than the first 10 games.
“We really shouldn’t care that much about winning five in a row,” said Manu Ginobili, who returned Sunday after missing five games with a strained groin and finished with eight points and three turnovers in 17 minutes.
“It’s always good. It helps your confidence, and of course your standings, but we still believe we’ve got a long way to go.” Ginobilli and the Spurs are 22-11 ATS after a non-conference game over the last two seasons.
Ginobili and the Spurs may be hesitant to make too much of the winning streak given the quality of the opponents. Three of the teams they defeated have losing records and the other two—Houston and Milwaukee—have spent much of the season hovering around .500.
San Antonio’s upcoming schedule should provide a bigger test, with home games against division leaders Boston and Denver before Monday’s visit to Utah, which has won six of seven. However, not all the Spurs see the upcoming game against the Celtics (14-4, 8-10 ATS) as a measuring stick.
“Right now, neither team is going to be as sharp as they’d like,” Richard Jefferson said. “I think both teams are going to be a lot better later in the season. … We’re standing firm with (coach Greg Popovich) that we’re learning, we’re all trying to get better from day to day.”
The Spurs haven’t won six in a row since Dec. 4-14, 2008 and are 3-12 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive wins over the last two years.
Boston brings its own five-game winning streak into San Antonio as it continues a four-game road trip. The Celtics beat Charlotte 108-90 on Tuesday behind Ray Allen’s best performance of the season. Allen came in averaging 15.2 points but finished with 27—he scored more than 20 in only one other game all season—and hit five of his six 3-point attempts. He had been 7 for 27 from beyond the arc in the previous six games.
Allen regaining his shooting touch adds another weapon to an offense averaging 107.2 points and shooting 51.6 percent over the winning streak. Paul Pierce averaged 26.0 points in the first three games of it, although he’s been held to a combined 23 in the last two. He was 3 of 8 from the field Tuesday to finish with a season-low eight points. Boston arrives in San Antonio and is 8-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or higher.
Sportsbook.com has the Spurs as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 186.5. Coach Popovich’s club is only 8-20 ATS when playing against a top-level team with a win percentage of .700 or better the last three seasons, however is 11-2 ATS if they managed to score more than 100 points in previous outing. Since 2007, Boston is 28-13 ATS as an underdog.
San Antonio is 9-3 and 6-5-1 ATS in last dozen Celtics’ visits, however they have failed to win or cover last three at AT&T Center.
This is the Thursday night NBA opener on TNT, with the Spurs 18-6 UNDER in home games when playing four or less games in 10 days over the last three seasons and Boston is 13-3 UNDER in non-conference road games since last year. The action begins at 8 Eastern.
The StatFox Power Line shows San Antonio by 2
NBA: Can Underdog Dallas Thrive in San Antonio?
2009-02-25
The San Antonio Spurs have been without reigning sixth man of the year Manu Ginobili since the All-Star break, while the Dallas Mavericks have gone two weeks without their own star sub, Jason Terry. Neither team, however, seemed to miss its top reserve in its last game. The Spurs return to play at the AT&T Center for the first time this month as the Southwest Division rivals square off Tuesday night. This rivalry showdown gets top billing on a night of eight games. Get the latest lines for each on the LIVE ODDS page.
Ginobili, who missed San Antonio’s first 12 games of 2008-09 following offseason surgery on his left ankle, is now expected to miss about two more weeks with a right ankle injury.
Terry, leading the league with 20.0 points per game off the bench, is also expected to miss several more weeks to recover from surgery on his left hand.
The Mavericks (33-22, 26-29 ATS) got more than enough offense without Terry on Saturday night, when they routed Sacramento 116-95. They led 70-50 at halftime, enabling coach Rick Carlisle to turn to his bench early. Brandon Bass had a season-high 20 points and fellow reserve James Singleton added a season-high 19 points with 12 rebounds as Dallas won for the third time in the five games of Terry’s absence and are tied for sixth position in the Western Conference playoffs with New Orleans.
“We just thought it was a good opportunity to let it ride with those guys,” Carlisle said of his bench. “They had a good rhythm. They were defending and they were scoring.” Dallas is 14-5 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite this season.
The division-leading Spurs (37-17, 27-25-2 ATS) also got much of their offense from an unfamiliar source Saturday. Roger Mason scored 25 points in a 98-67 blowout of Washington as San Antonio improved to 8-8 without Ginobili this season. Mason, who spent the last two seasons with the Wizards, went 9-for-15 from the field - including 5-for-9 from 3-point range - while Tim Duncan and Tony Parker were held to 12 and nine points, respectively.
“I think I would have made a big impact (with the Wizards). Who’s to say?” Mason said. “You never know. That’s just the confidence I have. I’m just glad I made an impact on this team.” San Antonio is 23-10 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.
The Spurs’ win capped 10,761 miles of travel over 19 days while their home court was occupied by the annual San Antonio Stock Show and Rodeo. San Antonio, which last played at the AT&T Center on Jan. 31, went 5-3 and 5-2-1 ATS on the trip.
“Every year, we seem to make something out of it,” Duncan said. “There’s no way to deny it. Every year, we come out of this road trip a better team. We find a way to bond. We find a way to do something on the road. It works for us.” Duncan and his teammates are 8-1 ATS at home off a road trip of seven or more days.
That’s bad news for the Mavericks, who have dropped four of their last five against the Spurs. Dallas won 98-81 in San Antonio on Nov. 4, but fell 133-126 in double overtime in the teams’ last meeting Dec. 9 in Dallas.
Sportsbook.com has made the Spurs 4.5-point favorites with a total of 190.5. The happy to be home Spurs are 29-11 ATS in home games when playing six or less games over a two week period. The Mavericks have been at their best of late with 5-0 ATS mark with two days between games.
This has long been a visitor’s division rivalry during the regular season and when they have met in the playoffs. Dallas has taken six of last ten is southwest Texas with sparkling 9-1 ATS record.
The last meeting, even before the two extra sessions was an Over total. In San Antonio, four of the last five battles have gone Under and the Spurs 10-2 UNDER after two consecutive non-conference games this season. Dallas might be expect to follow suit after high scoring conquest of the Kings, with 15-5 UNDER mark after a combined score of 205 points or more.
This Southwest Division showdown starts at 8:30 Eastern and is available on local TV markets, with the underdog 19-7 ATS.
StatFox Power Line – San Antonio by 5